Risk Alarm

RiskAlarm - It determines the margin levels for each tool in a multi-currency trade with all the open orders for each of the instruments used.

Margin level may be set both by the user (Margin User), and be defined preset levels Margin Call and Stop Out. Margin User is set as a percentage of the margin level similar to the Margin Call and Stop Out

Margin level (user selectable in one click) can be represented by

• price (level) quotes Margin User, Margin Call and Stop Out;


• in points, remaining until Margin User, Margin Call and Stop Out;


• in the media, remaining until Margin User, Margin Call and Stop Out;


• as the ratio of free funds for Margin User, Margin Call and Stop Out in the currency of the deposit of each instrument.

Information on marginal levels displayed in text form in the upper right corner of the screen for each instrument. For this tool it can be represented on the graph by the user customizable color lines rates (level) quotes. Focus margin levels (long, short) Margin User, Margin Call and Stop Out custom color specified tool framework user.

When one of the marginal levels

• change pattern displayed text information;


• play an audio file;


• send emails to the address specified in the settings window on the "Mail" tab;


• notification is sent to mobile terminals whose MetaQuotes ID specified in the Settings tab of the "alert".

Important

• Calculations of count only open orders (Buy Sell), pending orders are not taken into account;


• significance level in spreads are not considered;


• method of calculating the profits and collateral - forex;


• alarm is only triggered when exceeding the marginal level (at not triggered);


• at opposite positions on the same financial instrument information about the instrument indicates 0.


• margin levels when a multi trade dynamic (in case of trading one instrument static), deviation levels depends on the volatility of tools having an open position.

Input parameters

• Level Margin User - level set by the user (as a percentage of the level of margin)


• Choice Method - margin level display method:




• PRICE - price quotes


• PIPS - in points


• MONEY - in the deposit currency


• PERCENT - Percentage

(Changing the display method is carried out by pressing the button Method on the graph)

• Choice Level - selection margin level to display




• MarginCall - level MARGIN CALL


• StopOut - STOP OUT level


• MarginUser - level MARGIN USER

(Changes in the level of choice for display by pressing the button Level on the graph)

• Line On-true / Off-false - including visualization of the signal levels on the graph for the current tool - true, switch off - false


• Sound Alarm - beep for inclusion need to specify the path and name of the sound file (* .wav), to switch off the set NULL


• SendEmail -Send a message to email, to enable necessary to set the message subject (any text) to switch off the set NULL


• SendNotifications - send a message to your smartphone, you need to turn on the set subject of the message (any text) to switch off the set NULL;


• Background Color Norm - background color information about the instrument mode - standard;


• Background Color Margin User - the color of the background information on the instrument mode - load level MARGIN USER


• Background Color Margin Call - background color information about the instrument mode - load level MARGIN CALL


• Text Color - color of the text information about the instrument


• Border Color Long Alarm - Color tool box, which determines the direction of the margin levels for long positions (Long)


• Border Color Short Alarm - Color tool box, which determines the direction of the margin levels for short positions (Short)

Disclaimer: Information on the margin level is a recommendation for the prevention of risks.

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Trade24Pro

This trade expert has a minimum of external configuration, uses internal algorithms entry into the market and is a fully automated trading system. Optimized for use on the EURUSD pair on the timeframes M5, M15, M30. The frequency and accuracy of orders opening is adjusted using the special variable "OpeningAlgorithm", setting the value that you change the input algorithms in the market. Total implemented three algorithms:

• 1 = very large number of opened orders, but the percentage of accuracy drops significantly;


• Balanced Mode = 2;


• 3 = mode with the most accurate entry into the market, the accuracy of which is higher than 90%, but orders will be opened a little less.

With the variable "LotRisk" you can configure the startup item as a percentage of the deposit, which will be adviser to enter the market.

The counselor provides the following features:

• Automatic determination of the number of decimal places and the selection of the internal settings;


• Algorithms to enter the market;


• Trailing stop;


• breakeven;


• averaging unit (very easy to averaging), which focuses on maintaining your balance in the black.

Important

• Deposit desirably from 50 $;


• When removing the profit restart advisor;


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Dollar back daily losses

On Monday, the Chinese celebrate the New Year according to the lunar calendar. It is believed that today there is a change, the patrons: Goats takes place Monkey. Chinese markets are closed for a week in Hong Kong - Three days in Singapore - two days.

In China, a day off, and European markets reeling. With the opening of trading in Europe, the euro / dollar exchange rate rose to 1.1183 against the backdrop of the collapse of stock indices. Risk aversion increased demand for gold and the Japanese yen as safe-haven assets.

Reduced stock indexes could cause a drop in oil prices. On the market as of 17:16 MSK barrel of Brent is trading at $ 33.64. Nikkei-225 index closed down growth at 1.10%. France's CAC 40 lost 2.21%, to 4107.74 points. Germany's DAX fell 2.45% to 9058.44 points. Britain's FTSE 100 index was down 1.76%, to 5745.40.

EUR / USD briefly stayed at the level of 1.1183. As soon as the cross-pairs followed by profit-taking on the strengthening of the euro, the euro / dollar fell to 1.1109. Pound / dollar after the update session high fell 130 points to 1.4395.

It is clear that we are seeing risk aversion, because gold has risen in price by $ 12 to $ 1177 per troy ounce. This is not all the external factors are known to explain the current behavior of currency pairs in the European session. Part of the euro and the pound presses Friday report on the labor market.

In the American session the tone for trading will be set by the US indices, because the economic calendar is empty. GBP / USD has reached a significant support on the hourly period. As part of the corrective pullback pair is able to return to the level of 1.4465, the euro / dollar - to 1.1150.

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Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Inflation has always been one of the most powerful indicators of the national currency stability assessment, to evaluate the level of inflation may be through the analysis of the consumer price index.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) - abbreviated to CPI, is a measure of the cost of a basket of consumer goods and services required. CPI is calculated based on price changes for each of the components of the basket, taking into consideration and the importance of a product in the consumer basket.



Furthermore, the index is used in the preparation of a living wage, which is based on many other factors in the social sphere and economy.

Increasing the total cost of the consumer basket may indicate an increased level of inflation and is usually negative consequences, both for the national currency, as well as for the economy as a whole.

Reducing the average cost of goods and services in the basket, shows a positive trend, and the strengthening of the national currency, and is a testament to deflation.

Consumer Price Index index is often used as a signal for the opening of transactions on the foreign exchange market forex or stock market. This is due to the fact that the exchange rate and the prices of some stocks is quite sensitive to any changes in the consumer price index.

Normally, when trading using trading on the news, while reducing the index, open the deal to buy the currency, and with an increase in the cost of the consumer basket open sell orders.

More understandable active trading option appears on a specific example.

Of forex calendar learn, when will the publication of the Consumer Price Index for the Euro, after being prepared for a deal on the currency pair EUR / USD. If you leave a message on decrease in the consumer price index, open the deal to buy, as the base currency Euro stands in the currency pair EUR / USD.

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Quantum Euro Weighted USD Index

Quantum Euro Weighted USD Index Indicator

The US dollar is at the center of all financial markets. This is the main reserve currency and safe haven for investment. In US dollars evaluated all commodities. Moreover, the currency, the price of which is the very first place must take into account every trader!

Knowledge of the situation on the USD in the forex market is of paramount importance when assessing market sentiment, risk and cash flow in certain markets and instruments. Knowing in which direction the USD, all the rest - simple.

Quantum DXY indicator shows the situation on the USD in the forex market directly in MT4 terminal. It laid the basket of currencies, taking into account the changes made in 1999 in connection with the introduction of the euro. To ensure the operation of the index in all terminals MT4, currency SEK was replaced by AUD:

• EUR 57.6%


• JPY 13.6%


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• CAD 9.1%


• AUD 4.2%


• CHF 3.6%

Quantum DXY indicator shows the strength and weakness of the USD in relation to the currency basket. It can be used on any chart of any timeframe. With the help of the indicator you will get an instant picture of the USD. Alternatively, you can create a separate workspace for multiple timeframes.

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• Second, as a confirmatory indicator to work in conjunction with Quantum Currency Strength indicator for perspective estimation in relation to other currencies


• And finally, as the main barometer of risk

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SUPPORT FOR EXPERIMENTAL DATA

SUPPORT FOR EXPERIMENTAL DATA ANALYSIS Forex: The intelligence

The beginning of the following links:

https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/659572

https://www.mql5.com/ru/blogs/post/659929

Important: last time I deleted several entries of the array, which was looking into the value of a number of different pairs (compound effect together stories 5 pairs). But I did it only for covariates. Today, analyzing the charts, I saw that for looking into the future and there is a problem. Therefore, the previous code should be supplemented with the following lines:

dat_train_final - subset (dat_train_final, dat_train_final $ future_lag_724 0.05 dat_train_final $ future_lag_724 -0.05)
dat_test_final - subset (dat_test_final, dat_test_final $ future_lag_724 0.05 dat_test_final $ future_lag_724 -0.05)

Due to the fact that the vector in the array for training and validation are the difference 724 + - 50 steps, then simply delete only emissions by variable increments 724.

Today: intelligence analysis, graphical study, statistical heterogeneity checking data on the training and validation samples.

Today ID:

### loading working data
dat_train_final - read.csv ( 'C: /R_study/fx/dat_train_final.csv'
, Sep = ','
, Dec = '.')
dat_test_final - read.csv ( 'C: /R_study/fx/dat_test_final.csv'
, Sep = ','
, Dec = '.')
### charts
require (ggplot2)
chart_names - c ( 'price lags', 'mean differences', 'max differences', 'min differences', 'standard deviation', 'price range', 'future price lags')
# Time series
for (i in 0: 6) {

plot_data - as.data.frame (c (dat_train_final [, 1 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 2 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 3 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 4 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 5 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 6 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 7 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 8 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 9 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 10 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 11 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 12 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 13 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 14 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 15 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 16 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 17 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 18, 18 + i *]))

plot_data $ group - c (rep (names (dat_train_final) [1 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [2 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [3 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [4 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [5 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [6 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [7 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [8 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [9 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [10 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [11 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [12 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [13 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [14 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [15 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [16 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [17 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [18 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final)))

plot_data $ points - c (seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final))
, Seq (1: nrow (dat_train_final)))

colnames (plot_data) - c ( 'values', 'lags', 'points')

ch - ggplot (plot_data, aes (x = points, y = values, colour = lags, group = lags)) +
geom_line (alpha = 0.3) +
ggtitle (chart_names [i + 1])

print (ch)
}
# density
for (i in 0: 6) {

plot_data - as.data.frame (c (dat_train_final [, 1 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 2 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 3 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 4 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 5 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 6 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 7 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 8 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 9 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 10 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 11 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 12 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 13 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 14 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 15 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 16 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 17 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 18, 18 + i *]))

plot_data $ group - c (rep (names (dat_train_final) [1 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [2 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [3 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [4 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [5 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [6 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [7 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [8 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [9 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [10 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [11 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [12 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [13 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [14 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [15 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [16 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [17 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [18 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final)))
colnames (plot_data) - c ( 'values', 'lags')

ch - ggplot (plot_data, aes (x = values, fill = lags)) +
geom_density (alpha = 0.3) +
ggtitle (paste ( 'density of', chart_names [i + 1]))

print (ch)

}
# boxplot
for (i in 0: 6) {

plot_data - as.data.frame (c (dat_train_final [, 1 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 2 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 3 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 4 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 5 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 6 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 7 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 8 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 9 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 10 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 11 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 12 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 13 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 14 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 15 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 16 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 17 + i * 18]
, Dat_train_final [, 18, 18 + i *]))

plot_data $ group - c (rep (names (dat_train_final) [1 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [2 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [3 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [4 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [5 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [6 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [7 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [8 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [9 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [10 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [11 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [12 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [13 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [14 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [15 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [16 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [17 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final))
, Rep (names (dat_train_final) [18 + i * 18], nrow (dat_train_final)))
plot_data $ group - as.factor (plot_data $ group)

colnames (plot_data) - c ( 'values', 'lags')

ch - ggplot (plot_data, aes (x = lags, y = values, fill = lags)) +
geom_boxplot (show_guide = FALSE) +
xlab ( 'lags') +
ylab ( 'differences') +
ggtitle (paste ( 'boxplot of', chart_names [i + 1]))

print (ch)

}
# Density comparison for train and test
distr_compare - data.frame ()
plot_list - list ()
for (i in 1: 126) {

plot_data - as.data.frame (c (dat_train_final [, i]
, Dat_test_final [, i]))

plot_data $ group - c (rep (paste ( 'train_', names (dat_train_final) [i], nrow (dat_train_final)))
, (Paste ( 'test_', names (dat_test_final) [i], nrow (dat_test_final))))

colnames (plot_data) - c ( 'values', 'lags')

pval - round (ks.test (dat_train_final [, i] + rnorm (n = nrow (dat_train_final), mean = 0, sd = 0.00001)
, Dat_test_final [, i] + rnorm (n = nrow (dat_test_final), mean = 0, sd = 0.00001)
, Alternative = 'two.sided') $ p.value, digits = 4)

distr_compare [i, 1] - names (dat_train_final) [i]
distr_compare [i, 2] - pval
plot_list [[i]] - ggplot (plot_data, aes (x = values, fill = lags)) +
geom_density (alpha = 0.3) +
ggtitle (paste ( 'density of train and test for variable', names (dat_train_final [i]), 'with distribution equality p-value =', pval))

}
colnames (distr_compare) - c ( 'variable_name', 'ks.tests p-value')
plot (distr_compare $ `ks.tests p-value`, type = 's')
plot_list [[1]]

Consider the details. We need to set ggplot2 package.

Let me remind you that we have formed an input vector of 108 variables and the output of the 18 variables.

All inputs are divided into 6 parts according to the logic of their formation:

1) The number of increments taken from different lag

2) the difference from the last price moving average

3) the difference of the last price peak with sliding

4) the last price difference with a sliding minimum

5) moving standard deviation

6) moving range data

Outputs the difference between the price of n steps forward and the last known price.

Steps (lags): 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 16, 23, 32, 35, 64, 91, 128, 181, 256, 362, 512, 724.

Let me remind you that this is 2 ^ (from 1 to 9.5 with step = 0.5).

Also recall that in training we took 2/3 of the history of each currency pair (ie the farthest past) and 1/3 of each pair left for validation. Check the model, so that will go to the future value of the price series.

First, look at a very informative but bulky squeeze on our data.

summary (dat_train_final)
lag_diff_2 lag_diff_3 lag_diff_4 lag_diff_6 lag_diff_8 lag_diff_11 lag_diff_16
Min. : -1.164e-02 Min. : -1.176e-02 Min. : -1.416e-02 Min. : -1.517e-02 Min. : -1.491e-02 Min. : -1.545e-02 Min. : -1.493e-02
1st Qu.:-2.000e-04 1st Qu.:-2.000e-04 1st Qu.:-2.000e-04 1st Qu.:-3.000e-04 1st Qu.:-3.000e-04 1st Qu.:- 4.000e-04 1st Qu.:-4.000e-04
Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00
Mean: -2.165e-06 Mean: -2.373e-06 Mean: -5.480e-07 Mean: -3.982e-06 Mean: -4.110e-06 Mean: 7.570e-07 Mean: 3.493e-06
3rd Qu .: 2.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 2.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 2.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 3.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 3.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 4.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 4.000e-04
Max. : 8.900e-03 Max. : 8.700e-03 Max. : 8.900e-03 Max. : 9.100e-03 Max. : 9.500e-03 Max. : 9.500e-03 Max. : 1.030e-02
lag_diff_23 lag_diff_32 lag_diff_45 lag_diff_64 lag_diff_91 lag_diff_128 lag_diff_181
Min. : -1.382e-02 Min. : -1.420e-02 Min. : -1.710e-02 Min. : -1.99e-02 Min. : -2.020e-02 Min. : -0.024000 Min. : -2.850e-02
1st Qu.:-5.000e-04 1st Qu.:-6.000e-04 1st Qu.:-7.000e-04 1st Qu.:-8.20e-04 1st Qu.:-1.000e-03 1st Qu.:- 0.001200 1st Qu.:-1.400e-03
Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.00e + 00 Median: 0.000e + 00 Median: 0.000000 Median: 0.000e + 00
Mean: 5.935e-06 Mean: 5.528e-06 Mean: -2.476e-06 Mean: -2.15e-07 Mean: 1.225e-05 Mean: 0.000008 Mean: 1.832e-05
3rd Qu .: 5.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 6.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 7.000e-04 3rd Qu .: 8.00e-04 3rd Qu .: 1.010e-03 3rd Qu .: 0.001200 3rd Qu .: 1.500 e-03
Max. : 1.470e-02 Max. : 1.560e-02 Max. : 2.430e-02 Max. : 2.60e-02 Max. : 3.290e-02 Max. : 0.034920 Max. : 3.588e-02
lag_diff_256 lag_diff_362 lag_diff_512 lag_diff_724 # etc.

summary function provides insight into the distribution of parameters and very always helpful.

We now turn to the graphical analysis

First I build for each block a set of variables such as graphs "line" - that is, in each graph will be 18 variables corresponding to the joists.

Here, for example, look the price difference (price [t] - price [t - k]).

And now look at the probability density of these variables.

Head over to the other side. Let's see boxplot - box plot for all those same variables.

Here it is interesting: the median (strip inside the rectangle) is greater than zero. This comparison of the latest prices with a sliding minimum. And it should be noted that the median value increases with increasing lag. That is, the deeper we take the minimum, the more we expect the value of the difference with this value.

This concise information about the values ​​of standard deviations with different lags.

Now we will compare the data in the training set with the validation sample.

So compact, we iterate over all 126 speaker arrays and make a graphical comparison of densities, while conducting test for equality of distributions (the null hypothesis that they are equal).

I use the Kolmogorov-Smirnov's consent for the two samples: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmogorov%E2%80%93Smirnov_test

Note that when I conduct the test, I enter the normal noise in the data (sr.znach. = 0, sd. = 0.00001) in order to remove the overlapping values ​​in both samples, as they displace the evaluation of the test statistics, but wherein the active noise introduces a systematic shift in the data (bias).

We get that for all variables distribution (cumulative) in the training and validation samples are quite different. p values ​​are very close to zero, and we can not accept the null hypothesis of equality of distributions. And this is bad news, because the difference in the data makes all the time-dependent))).

We construct several plots with density.

That is all. We saw that the Forex data changes over time, and this time it difficult to build a model that will behave as we expect on the new data. Also, we just looked at from different angles on our data.

The next time the machine Loans Trainings and actually predicting price movements.

Till. Keep for updates.

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Forecast from company ForexMart

The forecast from the company ForexMart (ForeksMart)

Forecast NZD / USD on July 11

The currency pair New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar continues to trade in a narrow range 0.7250-0.7300, forming on the daily chart of the fifth "doji" row. Expected to penetrate said price band.

Technically, the pair is ready to continue the upward trend, but the fundamentals are supporting the US currency. On H4 kiwi also traded in the flat at the simple average with period 50.

The forecast EUR / USD on July 11

The pair fell from Pivot level and is now consolidating around SMA200. the euro is now trading near the 1.1385 level. On the hourly chart indicators show a decrease in the pair. On H4 situation is the same as the day - RSI declining, MACD is moving horizontally.

Tomorrow we will know the number of vacancies in the labor market from the JOLTS May. Projected to decline to a 6,044M 5,950M. It is also expected to address the representatives of the US Federal Reserve, the ECB and the Committee on the monetary policy of Great Britain.

From a pair of forward or continued consolidation or reduction to the rising channel's lower border in the area of ​​1.1310.

Bitcoin rate forecast on July 11

Trading instrument Bitcoin / USD started the week with a decline and test the key resistance level of 2400. With more likely to expect a rebound from the level, continue to monitor the situation.

Bitcoin At H4 formed a bearish pattern "absorption" of the level in 2500, located in the area of ​​convergence . In the case of consolidation below 2400, the fall in forward region 2000-1900.

Forecast GBP / USD on July 11

Bears stepped up the attack on the pound, it is now trading at 1.2879. The pair is close to the level of S1, slightly above the SMA200. Indicators are confused in the testimony: RSI shows growth and is located in 37,44, MACD went into negative territory and falling down bars indicates selling pounds.

If the pair breaks the level of 1.2844, we can expect an intensification of the downward trend up to the level of 1.2679, where one can expect a corrective rebound.

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OUTLOOK US threat of new sanctions

OUTLOOK-US threat of new sanctions against Russia may force the Central Bank to take a pause in rate cut

More than half of those surveyed by Reuters analysts expect that the Bank of Russia at the meeting on Friday, July 28 will take a pause in the reduction of the key rate because of the threat of new sanctions against Russia by the United States and against the background of the tendency towards a slowdown in inflation.

"Significant obstacle (to lower rates) is a tightening of sanctions. In case of signing (the US president of the bill), it will be quite a serious risk to our economy"- said Stanislav Murashov of Raiffeisenbank.

"I think that the Central Bank will wait with reduced rates".

The White House said on Sunday that US President Donald Trump is open to signing a bill toughening sanctions against Russia after the leaders of the Senate and House of Representatives reached agreement on the document.

For keeping the key rate at its current level of 9.00 per cent in favor of 12 analysts polled by Reuters of 21. The rest are waiting for the regulator still will reduce rates by 25 basis points.

For example, Rosbank analysts recognize that "sanctions news" complicate the task of the Central Bank on ways to mitigate the interest rate policy, but believe they will force the controller to refrain from lowering at the next meeting only if the scale correction in the currency and / or the bond market.

In addition to the threat of new US sanctions the most important negative factors that CBR should take into account, analysts appear to lower oil prices and unstable inflation dynamics.

Consumer prices in June rose 4.4 percent over the same period last year. Disinflation trend slowed for the first time in the last 10 months due to the exhaustion of the effects of last year's good harvest and the strengthening of the ruble.

Ministry of Economic Development predicts that by the end of July, annual inflation will slow to 4.0-4.2 percent.

"If you can even find significant arguments in favor of the fact that the June data may be regarded as a temporary phenomenon, the impact of higher food prices should not be ignored, especially if they affect the inflation expectations", - says Ivan Tchakarov of Citi.

"The acceleration of inflation to 4.4 percent in June, the Bank of Russia gives reason to pause in the reduction of the key rate in order to get more information for the assessment of future inflation path"- agrees Natalia Vaschelyuk of BIN.

Controller will make sure that the weather conditions are normalized, and most of the shock rise in prices for fruits and vegetables will be neutralized when entering retail new crop. In addition, the central bank need to understand how a number of factors - on the part of the increase in food prices, the weakening of the ruble, expectations about the rate of the national currency, the growth of tariffs for housing and communal services - influenced the inflation expectations of the population, according to Vaschelyuk.

Industry experts believe that the prices of vegetables in Russia will remain one of the risk factors for inflation until the autumn, when it will become clear whether the decreased harvest or just there was a delay because of rainy weather.

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Ample

Ample - a fully automated expert who works in any market and in any market situation. This strategy keeps short-term deal with a smaller floating loss and opens a deal almost daily. Working with a small deposit. $ 100 is enough to start. Each transaction is protected by a rigid stop-loss, and at high spreads are monitored pending order.

Monitoring signals: https://www.mql5.com/ru/users/emporium/seller

recommendations:

• VPS-server


• Leverage 1: 200


• The minimum deposit is $ 100


• H1 timeframe


• ECN-accounts
  
  

Help and questions:

If you need help selecting a broker or if you have any questions regarding the work of an expert, leave me a message.

Input parameters:

• MaximumLots - maximum lot size


• MaximumSpread - maximum spread in points


• Lots - Fixed lot size


• BalanceRisk - automatic lot size


• TakeProfit - take profit in pips


• StopLoss - stop loss in pips


• TimeFrame - Recommended timeframe - H1


• TrailingStart - beginning trailing in points


• TrailingStep - Step trailing in points


• UseBreakeven - False value in disabled breakeven


• StartBreakeven - beginning bezubytka in paragraphs


• StepBreakeven - bezubytka step in paragraphs


• Slippage - slippage in points


• Magic - magic number of transactions expert


• ShowInfo - within the meaning of false information in the chart is not displayed


• TextColor - the color information of the text


• DisableAlert - to false, the expert does not display an error

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Binary Options Signals

The indicator for binary options. Bidding for 2 minutes. It can be traded for 30 minutes and 1 hour, but the signal will not be enough. You can use the indicator for forex. The indicator works best with: GBPUSD, EURGBP, AUDUSD, USDCAD, silver.

Now for the rules:

1. Do not trade for 5-10 minutes prior to the start of the new hours and 5-10 minutes after a new hour.


2. Do not sell on the news to them for 5 minutes, and 5 minutes after them.


3. 3 on the news of the bull not to trade for 10-20 minutes (depending on valotilnosti) and not to sell for 10-20 minutes after the news.

I received the best deal from 12:10 to 14:45 GMT.

Video

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Forex School Preparing for Forex

Forex School: Preparing for Forex Certifications

To obtain the degree of Master of PAMM project participants ForexCup
You must pass "Forex Attestation" - so called our regular
competition in trading on real accounts, which helps us to find
talented and professional -traders.

Diligent students know that the exam is necessary
prepare well. Our team is ready to "pull up" your knowledge of
Trading before the attestation and invites you to "Forex School."

"School Forex » - this is a new competition on demo accounts, a short two-week trading training course, which will start 21 March. Upon successful completion of training and enters top 10 most brilliant "students" You are getting 100 USD* and will automatically be allowed to participate in the competition for real "Forex Certification 'accounts.

Enroll!

duration: from 21 March to 1 April;

Check in: 3-27 March;

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winners and fee: for
be eligible for the prize, participants must increase their initial
Deposit at least 30%. The top 10 traders get 100 USD, which
They can be used as a contribution for participating in the "Forex Certifications, Tour XI »(starts April 11).

Conditions of the competition:

• Participation is free;
• trading tools: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY,
  USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURGBP, GBPCHF, GBPJPY, GBPNZD, GBPCAD,
  GBPAUD, GBPSGD, EURCHF, EURAUD, EURJPY, EURCAD, EURNZD, EURSEK, EURDKK,
  EURTRY, EURNOK, EURPLN, EURHKD, AUDCAD, AUDJPY, AUDCHF, AUDNZD, CADJPY,
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  USDSEK, USDNOK, USDDKK, USDCNH, # AUS200, # ESX50, #FCHI, #GDAXIm, #NDXm,
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5. Group VKontakte ForexCup;
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Forex Certification Tour X another

Forex Certification, Tour X: another chance to show your talent for trader

The contest "Forex Certification" is back and brings another
test. X tour starts on February 29 and will help the team identify ForexCup
best providers PAMM.

what you need to know about the Tour X competition "Forex Certification"?

duration: 4 weeks from 29 February to 25 March;

Prize fund: 1 400 USD;

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Join the "Forex Certifications" Tour X!

An overview of the competition

"Forex Certification" - is a continuous competition for trading on real accounts, to participation in which invited those who wanted to become the provider . As a prize, the winner will receive PAMM ECN with a deposit of 5000 USD, as well as a unique chance to start a career PAMM-manager.

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Useful links:

1. Description and rules of the tournament;
2. Branch competition on ForexCup forum.

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BARCLAYS: ANALYSIS OF FOREX

Below are the latest technical installations for EUR / USD, USD / JPY, GBP / USD, EUR / CHF, AUD / USD, NZD / USD, and USD / CAD, as provided for in Barclays Capital.

EUR / USD: Nearby resistance at 1.1050 (200-DMA) helps to ensure that the sale .... Below 1.0985 will confirm the movement towards 1.0850, then our goals toward 1.0710.

USD / JPY: We are bearish and are looking for sale near 115.05 .. Below 110.95 will open our initial target to 110.35 / 05 then the target around 106.00.

GBP / USD: We bear .... we now expect to see further weakness towards support near 1.3850 and then our larger aims of 1.3500.

EUR / CHF: We are bearish in the short term after breaking below 1.0950. 1.0900 will indicate lower to 1.0835. In general, we expect the 1.0735 is support.

AUD / USD: We are bearish and expect resistance near 0.7270, 200-DMA. Movement lower than the initial targets near indicate 0.7070 to 0.6970, and then to the field of 0.6825.

NZD / USD: We are bearish to 0.6755 and are looking for a step in achieving near 0.6415 and then 0.6345.

USD / CAD: We are neutral. Movement is below 1.3640 to 1.3540 close to targets / 80 ... .zakrytie above 1.3870 (21-DMA), to signal to 1.4100 / 1.4330.

PS: signals are copied, distributed and earn https://www.share4you.com/ru/?affid=0fd9105

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Who among Russian billionaires

Who among Russian billionaires in the army

Today, the country celebrates the Day of Defenders of the Fatherland, dedicated to all men - present and future defenders of Russia. We decided to check the biography of the famous Russian millionaires and find out which of them did not "cut" from the army, and gave honest debt homeland.

Mikhail Prokhorov - 9.9 billion.

In 1983, Prokhorov entered the Moscow Institute of Finance. With preparations for the entrance examination to the prestigious Moscow Institute of Finance, the Department of International Economic Relations (IER), Prokhorov was no problem. Especially, in addition to the certificate with honors from the English special school Prokhorov was able to get the recommendations of the District Committee of the Komsomol.
But after the first course, on their own future billionaire went to serve in the armed forces. Prokhorov is still fondly remembers the years of military service, "I myself served in the army, as a student of Finance Academy. I went there immediately after the first year and spent an unforgettable two years young life. In general, I do not know firsthand what it is, our army, with all its pluses and minuses. "
Prokhorov truly believes that military service is necessary to make a prestigious occupation, then there will be order. Here, he writes an oligarch in his blog: "My opinion - the army should serve all. While there will not go to the children of the elite - the order will not be. It should be fashionable, cool and prestigious. The guy who can not (will not) to defend their country, will not be able to protect their relatives - mother, wife, children. "

Roman Abramovich - 9.1 billion.

He served from 1984 to 1986 in the artillery of the town of Kirzhach Vladimir region. The Roman army was taken from the first year of the Ukhta Industrial Institute. Duties of the Roma was simple: he was sitting at the checkpoint and noted who entered and who left a part of the territory.
To avoid falling into "grandfathers" in the heat of his hand, in his free time duty future oligarch stuck in the car park, making it appear that helps engineers and drivers to repair vehicles. Officers are not particularly Abramovich drilled through frequent visits to the regiment of his uncle Abram with a huge bag full of liquor and delicacies. All this meant superiors favorite nephew. The very same Roman army did not drink and did not smoke - carefully monitor their health. In the winter he often pretended to be sick, not to stand in the cold wind in the morning, divorce and not to engage in forced marches.
Abramovich's passion to lead, in particular football, are already evident at the time. In the second year of service, he gathered of the football team, organized amateur performances. However, until the sergeant, he never rose.

Oleg Deripaska - 6.2 billion.

At the beginning of "gorbacheskoy" era was a brief period when even full-time students were taken into the army. In 1986, after the end of the first course of the Physics Department of Moscow State University Oleg Deripaska I had to wear a soldier's overcoat and boots. No clout with him in those days was not, and he was sent to serve in the missile troops Trans-Baikal Military District. In Chita Deripaska distributed in "Lad Camp", where trained sergeants. Oleg upset by bullying Dembele and all the forces fighting with them. Former colleagues recall that rare scuffle by older did without a report from the principal of Junior Sergeant Deripaska. As a result of truth-is constantly transferred from part to part, to get rid of revenge.
Now Deripaska, remembering the service, likes to show off. For example, a favorite army bike oligarch-dinner conversations with ignorant women: "I remember the APC, well, this armored vehicle stalled on a scholarship. I - squad. We are in the forest. Forty degrees below zero. Where it is necessary to spend the night. We slept in the snow under the trees, clinging to each other. Fortunately, we woke up normal ... At least, I have taught the children some things tobazovym for a soldier. "

Leonid Fedun - 5.3 billion.

Leonid Fedun - one of the few Russian billionaires, whose fate was also closely associated with the army. Father Leonid, Arnold Antonovich Fedun, was a military officer, he has behind him - Military Medical Faculty of the Kharkov Medical Institute and the Military Medical Academy named after Kirov. Perhaps that is why Leonid early age learned what military discipline. Father since childhood instilled in his son the qualities that have helped Leonid future to climb the career ladder in the "LUKOIL": pedantry, loyalty to corporate interests, accurate execution of orders. An example of a father and a strict military education in general were decisive for Leonid Fedun, who at the moment was able to earn in excess of 5 billion. Rub.
It would seem that the fate of Leonid Fedun was originally predestined: he decided to become a military man like his father, who in 1976 was already the chief surgeon of the Strategic Missile Forces. In 1972 Leonid Fedun entered the Rostov Higher Military School of the Strategic Missile Forces. But to continue the dynasty of military medics Fedun Jr. did not dare. Vybralvoenno-political department. In 1977, after the military school, Leonid Fedun continued service in the Strategic Missile Forces. But did not stay long in the army has decided to continue his education and enrolled in a postgraduate course at the Military Academy imeniF. Dzerzhinsky.
By the way, Leonid Fedun was a real lucky - changes in the country and society in the late 80's - early 90-ies, and often broke the fate of many officers, but he formally remaining a soldier, was away from the destructive processes that affected the army.

Oleg Tinkov - 0.5 Bln.

Oleg Tinkoff, a well-known Russian banker, being a promising young athlete, really did not want to serve in the army. At school age, Oleg Tinkoff quite seriously keen on road cycling and reached the tops of serious, repeated champion of Kuzbass, won more than 30 races! "In 1986, while working at the mine (Oleg Tinkov a native of the Kemerovo Region - FP), I lived in anticipation of spring, as hoped, that I will take to the SKA, Army Sports Club. Otherwise, the luminaries I call. And then my coach Ivan Stepanovich only probably just set me up - now I do not take offense to it: that is done - for the better. He promised me getting into the SKA, but there was only one place. In the spring conscription was another athlete born in 1967. The son of the chief of the Novosibirsk SKA. And for me, Oleg Tinkoff, the champion of Kuzbass, multiple winner of the competition in Novosibirsk SKA took this son. Although I had one foot "I swing the" - says the banker.
Therefore, in 1986, Tinkoff taken away to serve in the border troops. Year served in Nakhodka, was transferred to the Nikolaevsk-on-Amur, where he realized that mosquitoes means and -55 degrees Celsius.
Due to the fact that Oleg Tinkoff was a great athlete, he does not just "get" in the army. That's what says about the millionaire's life: "At one platoon in the frontier troops relied a Kalashnikov machine-gun, he was like a weight machine four, and in size - as two. Accordingly, run and crawl with him was much more difficult and uncomfortable. Of the 25 people no one wanted the gun went to him. I was approached by our commander, Captain Salah, and said: "Tinkoff, you are the master of sports, the growth of 190 cm - that's going to run around with a machine gun." So instead of a regular bicycle race in Novorossiysk I was in the army in the NCO School of the KGB border guards. I had to protect your peaceful sleep and our borders, two years and two months. "

By the way, Tinkoff believes that rumors of hazing in the army greatly exaggerated, as in his regiment, all was calm. "Yes, the army is a hierarchy. Yes, I washed the floors, and "grandfather" did not wash, but I have never been beaten in two years. Could push, give a kick in the ass, but no beatings were not "- says Tinkoff.

PS: signals are copied, distributed and earn - https://www.share4you.com/ru/?affid=0fd9105

February 23!

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Three Moving Averages Trader

To open a position Advisor uses indicator signals Three Moving Averages Signal.

Input parameters:

• Period of fast ma - period indicator Three Moving Averages Signal;


• Take in atr, 0 - do not use a take profit - size take profit of ATR (50) calculated on the current timeframe. If the value is 0, it is not used;


• Stop in atr, 0 - do not use a stop - resolution stop loss. If the value is 0, it is not used;


• Trailing in atr, 0 - do not use a trailing - Trailing Stop size. If the value is 0, it is not used;


• Risk factor, volume eq Equty * Risk factor / 1000 - It is used to calculate the size of the working item, which is calculated as Equity * Risk factor / 1000. For example, when the value of Equity 10000, Risk factor 0.01, the amount will be equal to 10000 * 0.01 / 1000 = 0.1;


• Volume in lots if Risk factor is 0 - the working volume of the lot. Risk factor if set to 0, the fixed amount will be used.

Settings in the default advisor, optimized for EURUSD and timeframe H1 2013. They are calculated as follows:

• It is determined by the working tool and timeframe - EURUSD and H1.
  
  


• Choose the size of the window optimization and testing period forward. For H1 timeframe they are 5 years and 1 year respectively.


• Selects the optimal values ​​of the parameters using the strategy tester verified results of the advisor to the forward period.


• The procedure for calculating the optimal parameters is performed several times. According to the analysis of the EA in the forward test concludes its roadworthiness.

The number of parameters to be optimized must be minimized in order to minimize the possibility of fitting a curve. Initially, one was chosen - Period of fast ma.

Setting the strategy tester before performing optimization reflected in the screenshots 1 (the "Options") and 2 (the "Options"). To speed up the use of the tester mode "Open prices only". You can use more accurate testing methods, but their results will not be very different, as the EA signals are recorded at the closing price.

The test results summarized in the table, and in a simplified form looks like this:

Optimization period window
The optimum value Period of fast ma
Testing period forward
Test Result striker profit

01.01.2003-01.01.2008	27	01.01.2008-01.01.2009	1647.45
01.01.2004-01.01.2009	23	01.01.2009-01.01.2010	-1050.33
01.01.2005-01.01.2010	24	01.01.2010-01.01.2011	528.96
01.01.2006-01.01.2011	46	01.01.2011-01.01.2012	-263.25
01.01.2007-01.01.2012	46	01.01.2012-01.01.2013	-330.79
in total			532.04

Trading system by the results of the test showed a profit striker.

One option to improve its performance can be further optimized input parameters. In this case, you need to realize that the increase in their number increases the risk of reoptimization.

When monitoring system revealed that she successfully captures the trend plots, but loses a lot of floating profit due to the fact that it picks up too late shift, it was decided to enter a trailing stop in this regard, for it is responsible for setting the EA Trailing in atr, 0 - do not use a trailing.

The results of optimization and testing forward are reflected in the table below:

Optimization period window
The optimum value Period of fast ma,
Trailing in atr
Testing period forward
Test Result striker profit

01.01.2003-01.01.2008	27, 5	01.01.2008-01.01.2009	2054.30
01.01.2004-01.01.2009	23, 5	01.01.2009-01.01.2010	-1133.12
01.01.2005-01.01.2010	24, 5	01.01.2010-01.01.2011	308.90
01.01.2006-01.01.2011	54 4	01.01.2011-01.01.2012	-1035.18
01.01.2007-01.01.2012	54 4	01.01.2012-01.01.2013	406.08
in total			700.98

The results of trading systems have improved. Profit increased by 31%. The number of unprofitable periods decreased from three to two. In the same way the optimum parameters obtained for 2013, which are set to the default advisor, they are shown in the screenshot 2. The results of work in 2013 (up to 18/05/2013 inclusive) are shown in the screenshots 3-5. Note that to use the optimal parameters obtained at the beginning of the year and it is forward, not bektest.

You can in the same way to obtain the parameters for the operation of the adviser on other instruments, timeframes, the next working period.

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Seconds Heiken Ashi

LED displays in a separate window price chart as candles Heiken Ashi at intervals less than a minute.

Available periods (seconds): 30, 20, 15, 12, 10, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.

It is possible to select the base prices for calculations.

Options

• Time frames - frequency display candles in seconds.


• Price levels count - the number of price levels on the graph.


• Applied price - the price used for the calculation.

buffers room: 0 - Heiken Ashi Open, 1 - Heiken Ashi High, 2 - Heiken Ashi Low, 3 - Heiken Ashi Close.

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Trend and correction indicator

This indicator is a strong trend of the currency pair at a specified number of bars, and is a correction to this trend. If the trend is strong enough, and the correction becomes equal to the set in the parameters, the display indicates this. You can set different values ​​for correction, better suited values ​​38, 50 and 62 (Fibonacci). Additionally, you can set the minimum length of the trend, the number of bars to find stories and other parameters.

Options

• History - the number of bars to determine the trend and correction;


• MinPriceDistance - trend minimum distance in units of the currency pairs;


• CorrectionPercent - correction percentage (recommended from 0 to 62);


• OnlyTouchingLine - enabling or disabling the option at which the signal appears only during a touch and rebound of correction lines;


• EnableAlert - Enable or disable the notification windows;


• UpColor - the color of the lower levels;


• DownColor - the color of the upper levels.

If you want to get automatic trading for this indicator, you can use the Advisor Trend and correction expert:

https://www.mql5.com/ru/market/product/22938

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Central Bank will continue its

The Central Bank will continue its policy aimed at the withdrawal of licenses from unscrupulous lending institutions

Central Bank will continue to revoke the licenses of dishonest banks that the government is developing other ways to protect assets for the repair, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

The Central Bank will continue its policy aimed at the withdrawal of licenses from unscrupulous lending institutions, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev at a meeting with Kaliningrad asset "United Russia".

And further recall (license) will, no doubt, - said the prime minister the word of one of the participants of the meeting that the Bank of Russia is once again robbed a number of banks licenses.

Question from the representative of the Kaliningrad branch "United Russia" As for how to protect the funds allocated for the repair of the citizens homes, cases of termination of the operation of banks (with the withdrawal of licenses), as well as inflation, the amount of which exceeds the interest on deposits.

Medvedev agreed that it is necessary "as far as possible to protect" tools for the repair of depreciation.

"Now a bill is considered by our colleagues, there is a special rate, the deposit is used. I hope that we to the maximum in the current environment will be able to protect these funds", - said the prime minister.

PS: Copy the signals, hand out and earn $ on https://www.share4you.com/ru/?affid=0fd9105

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