USD, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD: Weekly Forecast - Morgan Stanley

USD: There are a catalyst to become bullish. Neutral.

We believe that the current fall in the dollar will weaken. catalysts for a reversal will be a strong US data supporting the need for tightening in US monetary policy this year or other central banks around the world ...

JPY: Stay Bulls. Bullish.

... In general, the underestimation and JPY repatriation flows of pension funds for the aging population should also support the currency.

GBP: Use a rebound to sell. Bearish.

... GBP is highly risk-sensitive currencies ... among others. we expect that the GBPUSD will begin to fall again ... Risks Brexit must remain in the subtext for the currency. Retail sales will be in the spotlight this week.

CHF: The EURCHF range bound. Neutral.

... we will look to enter Long positions on USDCHF again, but not in the next few days. The Swiss National Bank lowered its inflation profile, but does not see the need to cut rates in the near future.

CAD: Better data, but it depends on oil. Neutral.

USDCAD is driven mainly due to oil prices ... BOC are less likely to cut rates in response to the decline in oil ... The limited fiscal stimulus is expected to be announced on 22 March.

AUD: Bear.

Recovery of iron ore prices and strong-than-expected labor market data have supported the AUD. The question for the RBA that will cause harm if the force in AUD competitiveness of exporters. We believe that the RBA is the central bank, which has room for policy easing. We've added a warrant for shorts on AUDUSD to our portfolio.

NZD: Bear.

NZDUSD is close to the top of the range at 0.6880 .... Milk prices and inflation expectations are expected to remain at a low level.

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