The fall in GDP - it does not matter, and the short-term losses.
We must trust the central bank, it is clearly will benefit the economy in the long term, I am sure the senior director of Fitch Paul Gamble. Confidence in the Elvira Nabiullina and her team enough, but running out of patience - most analysts believe that it is time to reduce the key rate.
In an interview with Bloomberg, senior director of rating agency Fitch Paul Gamble expressed confidence that today the credibility of the policy of the Russian Central Bank is more important than the current economic indicators.
"High key rate has a potentially negative impact on growth. For us the most important is to establish the credibility of the inflation targeting regime, and any impact on growth will be more than offset by the growth of confidence in the Central Bank ", - he says.
The Russian economy, including due to the Central Bank action moves smoothly from recession to stagnation. For half a year, GDP declined by 0.9%, for the year the Economic Development Ministry expects about minus 0.6%. The following year, growth will be minimal, according to Moody's analysts, and will amount to 1.5%.
At the same time, the tight monetary policy of the Bank of Russia (and a seasonal decline in prices for agricultural products) is yielding results in terms of reducing the rate of price increases.
Inflation for three weeks at zero, at the end of the year it could reach a historic low. "It is now 7% below the level of expectations (inflation -." Times ") at the end of the year. 5.7% - this is the level that we expect at the end of the year, it is a historic low inflation in Russia ", - said Deputy Finance Minister Maxim Oreshkin.
"We think that the arguments in favor of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank on Friday, quite weighty. Economic activity has declined, inflation continues to slow down. We also believe that the budget situation has improved in recent years, besides the global background (including short-term oil price forecasts) quite favorable ", - analysts said Sberbank CIB Vladimir Tsibanev and Tom Levinson.
They believe that on Friday, the Bank of Russia will lower its key rate by 50 basis points, from the current 10.5 to 10%.
Of the 22 analysts surveyed by RBC bank 19 of the same opinion. Criminal analyst, "Alfa Capital" Andrew Schenck said that the regulator once again lowered the rate until the end of the year. According to the consensus forecast by the end of the year rate will fall to 9.5%. Some optimists waiting for lower rates to 9% by the end of the year.
At the same time the risk of inflation and a surplus of liquidity in the banking system significantly increase the probability of keeping the key rate at the two-digit level by the end of the year, said a senior analyst with IC "Veles Capital" Yuri Kravchenko.
But recent statements by Elvira Nabiullina, caused slight confusion among market participants. Speaking at a forum in Sochi "Banks of Russia - XXI century", the chairman of the Central Bank stated that "worried about the risk of rapid growth of unsecured consumer lending" regulator. Moreover, in her view, "the main trends in the economy and in price movements do not appear until unambiguous and stable."
For this reason, he said Elvira Nabiullina, monetary policy adjustments in the near future will be "moderately tight and this will continue."
In view of these statements "VTB Capital" analysts assume that the Central Bank did not cut rates or reduce it to a symbolic 25 bps
"Of course, we believe that the need to mitigate the monetary policy is already overdue and are waiting for action from the regulator in this area. However, taking into account that at the last meeting of the Central Bank refrained from taking any steps, even now (with inflation at 6.9%) rhetoric can not change, "- says Sofia Kirsanova, Management Analyst" Raiffeisen Capital ". The arguments in favor of keeping rates the central bank may cause the instability of the current low levels of inflation (they are provided mainly by lower prices of seasonal vegetables), as well as the increased likelihood of the US Federal Reserve raise interest rates, which will result in enhancement of the volatility and the outflow of funds from emerging markets.
Kravchenko said that the past chairman of the Central Bank comments looked very hard (to some extent even in favor of a rate hike), but they fit into the mainstream of traditional conservative rhetoric of the Central Bank, regardless of economic conditions. And because the costs still expected to reduce the key rate.
The analysts point out that the actions of the regulator in terms of rates are already discounted by the market and not lead to any strong vibrations.
"Low actual inflation and expectations of the population for the continuation of the trend of slowing it allows the Central Bank to reduce the ruble rate. This solution is already built into federal loan bonds and rate quotes of the ruble / dollar and will not lead to serious reactions in the markets ", - said Dmitry Postolenko, portfolio manager of the Criminal Code" Capital ".
The trend to reduce deposit rates at banks and interest rates on loans will continue. Excess deposit rates and bond yields over inflation will allow the ruble to remain stable against the US dollar. Slow growth in economic activity does not give reason to expect a large-scale credit expansion.
According to Postolenko better than others at reducing the rates of mortgage lending market will react, which is preserved in demand for credit, and borrowers demand is sensitive to a decrease in rates.
The market is already laid in the price decline in Central Bank rates - can be seen on the long OFZ yields that are trading at a discount to the key rate, so the market response to the slowdown is unlikely to be significant, agrees Schenk. In his view, much more attention will be given to the fact that the Bank of Russia will publish in his commentary.
He also emphasizes that, "despite the fact that the rate can be reduced, monetary policy will remain tight, and those trends that we see today, such as the slowing of inflation, will continue."
Related posts
Russian stocks today will fall
Russian stocks today will fall - Weather Today, the Russian share market is expected to fall in the prices of many shares on the background of negative...
USDJPY Dollar continues to fall
USD / JPY: Dollar continues to fall The dollar continues to fall. Fears of about geopolitical risks and natural disasters in the US, weak economic data...
America last fall investors fear
America last fall , investors fear for the future of the economy On Tuesday, August 25 trading on US stock exchanges It ended with the fall of the...
Next posts
- Princes become beggars
- Armenian deputies fined for absenteeism
- European Commission will investigate
No comments:
Post a Comment