USD / JPY: Dollar continues to fall
The dollar continues to fall. Fears of about
geopolitical risks and natural disasters in the US, weak economic
data and doubts about the prospects of higher interest rates by the Federal
Reserve contributed to the dollar fell to its lowest level
for more than two and a half years.
ICE dollar index fell 0.5% today, reaching
a minimum of 33 months.
Reducing the USD / JPY pair started in July due to the weakening
expectations regarding the adoption of new stimulus measures in the US, including the reduction of
taxes and increase spending on infrastructure. Lately
strengthening of geopolitical concerns about the testing of weapons in North Korea
prompting investors to buy more reliable currency, such as gold, the Swiss franc, the yen.
This Saturday will mark the anniversary of the founding of North Korea
state. A year ago on this day the military tested a nuclear weapon.
History may repeat itself. But this time, it may be
as another missile launch over Japan and a nuclear test explosion
weapons in North Korea.
Yesterday, US President again with Donald Trump
expressed caution with regard to North Korea, saying that "North Korea
behaves badly, and it must be stopped. " "Military action against
North Korea - is one of the scenarios, "according to the opinion of Trump. military
opposition "could definitely happen".
Dollar decreased by 0.7% today to yen and 0.6% by
Swiss franc. the price of gold rose 0.7% to 1357.00 dollars per
ounce.
Investors also worry that hurricanes
"Harvey" and "Irma" may adversely affect the economic
US rates in the short term. It can also negatively
impact on the expectations of the Fed raising interest rates. Rising interest
Rates are generally supporting the currency. However, a number of Fed officials have expressed
questioned the need for such a move by the Fed at the background of low inflation
USA.
the dollar's decline is also due to the decrease
yield US Treasury. Today, the yield on 10-year US
government bonds continued to decline and, according Tradeweb, dropped to 2,027% of the
2.061% level recorded on Thursday.
Against the background of large-scale decline in the dollar and increased demand for
safe haven pair USD / JPY hit a new 10-month low,
breaking through the bottom level of 108.00.
It is likely that today, at the end of the trading week, many
investors will want to lock in profits on short dollar positions that
cause its corrective gains. That
However, the negative attitude of the dollar persists. Possibly further reduction
dollar in the short term, including in the pair USD / JPY.
*) Advanced fundamental
analysis is presented on the company website Tifia Forex Broker in
section tifia.com/analytics
Since July began active reduction pair USD / JPY, which
broke through key support levels of 110.90 (EMA200, EMA144 on the daily chart)
110.10 (Fibonacci 38.2% correction to the growth of the pair since last August
and the level of 99.90), 108.80 (EMA200, EMA144 on a weekly schedule).
A powerful negative pulse, based on the scale
weakening of the dollar, pushing the USD / JPY pair towards support levels of 106.50
(Fibonacci level 23.6%), 105.00 (EMA200, EMA144 on a monthly schedule).
Apparently, only near the 105.00 level possible
stop falling pair USD / JPY.
An alternative scenario assumes a return of USD / JPY
the zone above the level of 108.80 and regrowth
with the targets at the levels 110.10, 110.90.
However, the fundamental factor favors
further falling pair USD / JPY.
Technical indicators (OsMA and Stochastic) on the 4-hourly, daily,
weekly, monthly charts also provide signals on sale.
Support levels: 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
Resistance Levels: 108.10, 108.80, 110.10,
110.90, 113.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00
trading recommendations
buy Stop
108.20. Stop Loss 107.40.
Take-Profit 108.80, 110.10, 110.90
Sell in the market. Stop Loss 108.20. Take-Profit 107.00, 106.50, 105.00
*) Relevant and detailed
analytics and news on the forex market, see the company's website tifia.com Tifia Forex Broker
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