How to assemble the perfect all-weather investment portfolio?
As with
most
people who write about finance, I
There is a problem. My work does
it almost impossible for me
its management
own investment portfolio.
When I first began to work
full time work
writer
back in 2007, I had to sell all
its reserves
(Diageo, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway)
I do not even want to think about
what is
It costs me.
For me
It is also very difficult to pass
money manager
Fund, which even I
trust and respect,
e.g., Charles fund
de Voix,
Josh
Strauss or Allan
MEKAM,
because it is impossible in principle
for me, even if I
write about them.
Most
people in my position should be
third approach
and makes its investments
in traditional
"balanced
portfolio"
stock and bond index. Robust
sense says that it
safely and securely
is income from at least
something from his briefcase.
but then
I have another
problem.
I know that
is a widespread
opinion and the full
rave.
such mixed
Funds have not worked before
- bad. Today, many or most of the
stock
markets
highly overrated on the basis of numerous
long-term measures. bonds also
look
expensive on their background
own long-term standards.
The one who did his research - in
including, for example, I read
Rob's work
Arnott and
the late Peter Bernstein on
risks
Equity - knows that half
wisdom you hear
these days, and many of them
- mostly superstition.
So what
do I do?
Surprisingly,
I'd better stay in the very
good location ... continue
financial jobs
writer.
Because it means that I
not accidentally landed
in the same place where many
my readers:
It makes me
seek new
way!
In the same time
I want to have
simple investment
portfolio, so I do not
it was necessary to fool around with
them, and
which, I know,
maximizes my
chances of earning a good long-term
profit, and
will bring to
minimize my chance
be in the house for
poor.
I want
investment portfolio, which gives
all possible conditions.
And one of the options
based on intelligence
and reasonable assumptions about the future,
not only on an analysis of
Data from the past.
Did not I
I found it? I think
me he can
be. To find this
Alternatively, I spent more than
six months in the polls
every wise
investment expert, I
their tortured VET-full, I
I know. I learned opinion
from bovine and
bearish experts
have an optimistic and
pessimists. I looked
even investment
tycoon strategy in the medieval
Germany.
Before
go into
details, let me leave
enter a small intrigue.
Although I
used by FactSet, to see how
"Weatherproof" portfolio will
work for
the last 15 years because
Analysis is more than just a
Check for
errors. The portfolio is not based on the data
latest
15 years. This list was compiled
with past
research
only to the extent that
I myself believe
in his ideal.
here principles,
where
I build my
reliability:
- Portfolio,
According to Alberta Eynshteyna, should
It is as simple as possible, but not
easier.
- is he
It based on humility.
I do not know what will happen next, and no one
does not know. he made
for all potential
economic conditions,
but does not seek to
to any particular.
- Portfolio
It consists mainly of
shares, because even
Most bears recognize
those that produce the highest
long-term returns.
- Portfolio
It is also out of stock
natural resource and real estate,
Unlike other
asset classes, which are often given
very good income
Inflation times when other assets
misbehave on the market.
prefer
stocks friendly products, despite their
risk-taking,
because they generate income and
because "commodity
funds"
often subject to fees
and trading costs.
- In the briefcase
also have a long-term
"zero-coupon"
Treasury bonds, such
such as insurance.
This is the only valuable
paper, which grew
in difficult situations
for example, in 1929, 1987 and 2008
respectively.
- Portfolio
It is also
of long-term
Treasury securities are protected
Inflation, which
They offer some
hedging
against inflation and deflation.
- Portfolio
will be truly
global, if
in its composition will be action,
bonds,
natural
resources and
the property,
since all this time
a percentage of the global economy is shrinking.
- Portfolio
must be periodically
rebalance to
"return to
the average". Rebalancing
It allows you to benefit from volatility,
with virtually no losses.
- Portfolio
It includes cash, or close
equivalent, because the cash
class
assets will be a plus,
and it is not correlated
with nothing else.
- Portfolio
It contains
as little as possible cost
not to waste money on fees.
It turns out,
with the result that in our "all-weather
portfolio "
be approximately
10% of the assets of each of the items.
For simplicity
I model my portfolio
once a year on December 30.
I used
FactSet and began tracking
indices in early 1998, but now
you can use
exchange-traded funds or mutual funds to
keep track of these asset classes.
I suspect,
that performance
in the last 15 years was
emotions from unnecessary
boom
emerging markets, which have been in
crisis in the late 1990s. I would say,
which is about the same performance I
I got in his portfolio - in
staggered increased
and dropped my assets.
I still
I think that those of you who controls
portfolio of individual securities can
get a greater return,
especially if you
will approach
to the task with great wisdom and
attention. But for the rest
of us that
"All-weather portfolio" can be
a good alternative.
Take out
it all
What would you like.
Brett Arends, translation - MarioMeta.
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