China: the end of the economic miracle?
China
the last time in blogs very much.
A large number of articles and news items
talking about Chinese growth. But there is a serious economic press and other points of view. For example,
Bob Davis, a columnist for Wall
Street Journal, wrote on Friday
rather pessimistic lyrics that
I suggest you read.
"AT
2009 during a trip to China, I
I climbed to the top of the 13-storey pagoda in
the industrial center of Changzhou (it is near
Shanghai) and looked around. Construction
cranes towered over
horizon and haze over them looked
yellow in the sun. My son Daniel,
who at that time taught English
language at a local university, said
Me: "Yellow - is the development of color."
Behind
While in 2011, while I was living in Beijing
as a reporter, China became a salesman
№1 in the world (surpassing the US) and the economy
№2 on the planet (Moving into third place
Japan). Economists say that the displacement
US out of first place - just a matter of
time.
I
I witnessed how the head of
Chinese Communist Party became the new Secretary General -
an influential and active Xi Jinping.
He immediately declared himself a reformer,
He released a plan of 60 points for reworking
the country's economy and launched a campaign
clean rows leadership of corruption.
Xi Jinping, Chinese "father of nations" at the moment
But
Now, out of China, at the end of
nearly four-year period of residence
in this country, I am pessimistic about the
its economic future. You ask,
why?
When
I came here - China's GDP grew by almost
10% per year, and this continued throughout
almost 30 years. This is - a feat unmatched
in modern economic history.
Now, however, growth slowed to 7%. AND
Chinese economists, and Western
businessmen who are here for business,
It warns that direction
movement of the Chinese economy - obviously
downward. The big question is - only
how deep and how fast
Celestial falls.
I
I believe that we are witnessing the end of the Chinese
economic miracle. We see what
part of China's success was assured
debt bubble in the property market
and corruption schemes. lifting
Cranes - not necessarily symbols
economic growth. They can
symbolize more and rabies
economic system, it is extremely unhealthy
her condition.
Most
Chinese cities in which I was,
It surrounded by extensive, but absolutely empty
residential complexes, which outlines
at night can be seen only by the flashing
signal lights on the upper floors.
Empty city in China. There are practically no people live.
This is particularly evident in the so-called
the cities of the third and fourth "series"
- it is about 200 cities with a population of
500 000 to two or three million people.
These towns by Chinese standards
considered almost villages, and their
rarely visited by people from the West, but it is
they concentrate 70% of sales
real estate in China.
Of
my hotel window in the town on Ingkou
north-east of the country, I saw that
miles stretched quarters
absolutely empty houses, past which
only occasionally drove the car. creepy
impression - as if I was watching
consequences of the explosion of the neutron bomb:
people do not have, but the buildings remained.
AT
Over the past 20 years, the largest
driver of economic growth in the country
It was property. In 1990 the country
finally allowed Chinese private
ownership of real estate - and
economy soared. people invested
the savings of his life in the house and
apartment. Quite expectedly rose and
attached to the dispensation of the field
economy: the production of steel, glass,
manufacturing of consumer electronics and
furniture, and so on. d. Real Estate was
25% of China's GDP.
Behind
a housing boom
They paid with funds taken in
debt - with regard to this is not even
many private customers, as
government, builders and all
"Adjacent" industries.
This summer, the IMF noted that in the past
half a century, only four countries in the same
quickly built up his duty as China.
All four of these countries - Brazil,
Ireland, Spain and Sweden - have faced
banking crises during the first
of three years after the onset of congestion
loans.
that
pull themselves out of poverty, China took
an example with its closest neighbors -
Japan and South Korea - and I tried to
export earning. but the restriction
for that - paradoxically,
the enormity of China.
As the largest
exporter in the world, how he may
grow more? Trading US capacity and
especially European final.
must
to come up with other ways. bandy
economy on a path of innovation? This is a sacred
mantra every developed economy, but
China has a lot of competitors
Advantage: Still free
society more widely promoted
freedom of thought and custom
business ideas. In China, imagine a
currently very difficult.
For example,
in surveys of Chinese students-
"Techies" I found that on average they
inclined to take a chance to join
startups are seven times less likely than students
similar specialties at Stanford.
Bright
Example: an interview with the future specialist
engineering protection. parents of
student became rich thanks
industrial supplier to manufacture
shoes and water pumps. So, even
with such a good foundation for the future,
This young man is going to work
the state, and in any case not
walk in the footsteps of their parents and do not engage in
family business. After all, work is official
more secure, but also - very
important point - it can take a position
in power, which will help the development
parents' business.
Campaign
Xi slows
China, or at least severely
limits its development. Problems with
Corruption, too, have not gone away - they
just moved to a higher
level. None of exponential flogging
not capable of killing a man thirst
profit - we clearly see in the
Example of the Russian society. The scale
"Pretentious" in China meet
the scale of this vast country.
One
simple example: once the government
It developed a plan to address the problem
excess production of steel in the
Hebei (Beijing in the vicinity). In one
Only Hebee performed twice
steel than all the US (!!!), but since China
many simply do not need. Also,
steel mill pollutes
air. No sooner said than done. Xi Jinping
He warned local officials: they
work will no longer be assessed only
by quantity of product produced.
It will be taken into account and satisfaction
environmental goals.
officials
obediently nodded and organized
Exemplary campaign
production decrease. They were formed
demolition team who destroyed
several plants in Hebee. made it
All on the camera, and the "Ecological Information
Project "thundered the whole country. AND
Only a few months later came to light
Information that destroyed plants
It was stopped for a long time, and
Steel is actually not performed. at
This checkmark on reducing production
at the governmental level was
set, and as the overproduction
It was, and remains be present.
AND
so in China around.
AT
Generally, in China, I realized that the yellow - it does not
Only the development of color. It is also a color
the setting sun. "
Bean
Davis, specifically for WallStreet
Journal. Translation - Anomalia
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