Nomura on how to trade GBP / USD in the run-up to the referendum on Scottish independence
"Until recently, the results of the survey demonstrated unwillingness of the majority of the Scots vote for independence from Britain, but now it looks like it's time to think of the opposite outcome, as it is likely things" - wrote currency strategists at the bank. - "Given the almost equal ratio of potential votes" for "and" against ", the results of new surveys that will be published up to the referendum on September 18, will continue to exert a strong influence on the dynamics of the pound. However, history suggests that when it comes to the actual vote, people choose to vote in favor of maintaining the status quo or for the "lesser of two evils," which in this case means "no." For this reason, we recommend selling GBP / USD almost up to the referendum, to reduce the volume of short positions on the day before it, and in the opening of the polling stations to eliminate the remnants of "shorts" and buy a pair. It probably makes sense to hedge a long position this purchase put options "out of the money", as in the case of "worst" result, ie, Voting "yes", the pound may fall in price in the coming days by another 5-10%. "Related posts
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