British pound - peak after Brekzita

After Brekzita every second Briton predicted
the end of the United Kingdom over the next 10 years. These are shocking
a survey conducted by the BBC. It is clear that such shocks are not
reflect on the future of the British pound - one of the major currencies,
is now trading on the Forex market.

GBP / USD has consistently ranked third in
the global hierarchy of currencies in terms of liquidity. The volume of its operations to
a referendum on leaving the UK from the EU amounted to about 12% of all operations in
Forex and one of the main factors determining the popularity among couples
traders, is its high volatility.

Statistics of recent years testified
GBP unusually high sensitivity to fundamental factors, among
which not only data on the state of the British economy and the decision of the Bank
England, but similar data from Europe and the United States. Significant fluctuations
British pound was constantly called as statements of European officials and their colleagues
from overseas.

And it's up to Brekzita! What will happen to
"Briton" in terms of the force majeure?

"It is logical to assume, - says a leading analyst
brokerage company NordFX Dzhon Gordon (John Gordon), - that while the government
Britain did not officially announce the beginning of the EU exit procedure, and not
proceed to the specific implementation of this decision, the pound will try to keep
"Perimeter defense" and even try to slightly improve its position. But how
only the distance between Europe and the United Kingdom actually begins
increase will come for the pound of the "dark days". In the country there is the presence of
Problems with the budget and the serious deficit in current account balance. Such
the conditions will be very difficult to slow down the outflow of and although
would neutralize the bullish sentiment on the currency market. "

On the other hand, the chief economist at the Bank of England,
specialist in Europe Dzhonatan Loynes (Jonathan Loynes) believes that the fall
the pound, on the contrary, can do a good service to the economy of the country. "Lb
fell more than 11% against a basket of currencies - Dzh.Loynes said - and this
perceived as something negative. However, the pound was up Brekzita too
high and did not contribute to reduce the country's trade deficit, making the UK
exports uncompetitive expensive. " "Lowering the rate pounds can give again
UK exports a serious acceleration "- he assured the British
Industrialists in a recent report.

These comments echo the opinion of the winner
Wolfsen Prize economist Roger Bootle (Roger Bootle), which - even before
Referendum! - said that if British citizens voted out
from the EU and the pound depreciated sharply, in the long term, this would have
positive effect - would help balance the trade and close the trade deficit
balance due to increased exports and reduced domestic UK
demand for imports.

As for the analysts Credit Suisse Fixed Research,
they may not share the optimism of colleagues from the Bank of England and announced
serious revision of forecasts on major currency pairs.

Prevailing revision is that the forecast
GBP / USD fell from 1.58 to 1.22. As for the three-month forecast
EUR / USD, then, according to Dzhalinusa Shahab (Shahab Jalinoos) of Credit Suisse, he
dropped to 1.05. "Now that the negative scenario became a reality, he says
Analyst - we believe that the market will continue to strive to sell this
couple. "

Several larger drop forecast for GBP / USD
experts of the Dutch financial conglomerate ING. According to their forecasts, the pair
already may soon fall to 1.10-1.20. At the same time, longer-term
ING term, analysts paint a much more gloomy picture associated with
the possibility of holding a second referendum on Scottish independence and the loss of
pound reserve currency status. "It is clear that the lack of clarity (on the future of the UK) -
said Kris Terner (Chris Turner), head of global at ING in
London - will push the GBP towards at devaluation. "

As for the bank of JPMorgan, then, at the end Brekzita, he also updated its
projections, considering that in the third quarter of 2016. GBP / USD pair dropped below
1.29 level, and the EUR / GBP will reach
0.8760.

"Even before Brekzita - says Dzh.Gordon of NordFX - in
as critical analysts called the level of 1.30 against the dollar
USA. It is assumed that if the pair consolidates below it, then you can
wait for the fall to 1.15 pounds and then even lower - down to parity with
US currency. The pair has tested the 1.28 level, the future also,
of course, it depends on the steps that will take power
Great Britain".

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