Friday, April 19, 2019

Dollar weakness has caught at

Dollar weakness has caught at Trump


The US currency was unable to cope with the situation surrounding the failure of health reform. This led to the fact that other currencies do not fail to take advantage.



EUR / USD - US dollar is preparing to raise its head this week



The US currency bottomed



The dollar closed last week, dropping almost to a two-month low against a basket of major world currencies - at around 1.0800. doubts about the ability of Trump in the implementation of fiscal stimulus after the failure of the medical bill. This failure was the demonstration of the weakness of the White House.



The dollar index reached a minimum



dollar index also finished the last week in the negative, falling to 99.258 (0.4%). This is the lowest figure since February 2.



There is a growing number of open long positions



According to the report Commitment of Traders (COT), published by the Commission Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on March 24, the volume of net positions of speculators in the US dollar last week amounted to $ 18.44 billion. (Weekly increase of $ 0.85 billion.).



The main impact on the market will




  • personal consumption expenditures (PCE) in February,


  • Applications for benefits under unemployment in the US,


  • the speech of the Fed's Janet Yellen,


  • speech of the Federal Reserve Board member Jerome Powell,


  • speech of the Federal Reserve board member William Dudley.



USD / JPY - is preparing for a decisive battle



The pair is trying to regain lost



Last week was extremely negative for the pair. Slightly feverish markets after the Fed did not live up to expectations of higher interest rates, and the US Congress has postponed a vote on health reform. As a result, USD / JPY exchange rate almost reached the level of 1.10, but was able to regain some ground, rising at the end of the week to 110.61.



Beginning of the trading week will be crucial for the pair. The first course on movement may have economic data.



Important macroeconomic indicators




  • CPI CPI,


  • Applications for benefits under unemployment in the US.



GBP / USD - took "the bull by the horns"



The pound started to rise during the Asian session



Taking advantage of the weakness of the US dollar, the pound began a new week with growth and already extends to a new five-week high - 1.2530,00. The failure of the reform of the US health care system and reducing the yield of US Treasury bonds have allowed the pound to become an alternative to higher-yielding currencies in the eyes of investors.



Meeting Terezy Mey and Nikolas Sterdzhen



Today, the market's attention focused on the forthcoming visit of the British Prime Minister Terezy Mey in Scotland, where she will meet with the first Scottish minister Nicholas Sturgeon. Her upcoming call for the unity of the country can give even greater support to the pound.



Which could affect the pair today



Given the lack of fundamental news from the UK, the situation will continue to depend on the dynamics of the dollar and the Fed sentiment. In particular, from the speech of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a member of the Fed's Charles Evans.



AUD / USD - in thought at the crossroads



The Australian dollar can not decide



The pair reached a deadlock after falling to 0.7630 last week and yet her mood is not defined. The upcoming economic events may either push it up or to ensure the continuation of the downtrend.



What to expect from the "Aussie" this week



During the first half of the week effect on the further movement of the pair can have a macro-economic data from the US and speeches by the Fed. In addition, the March 30 final data on US GDP may like to aggravate and alleviate the impact of the above two Australian economic indicators. It depends on whether it reaches the predicted level of 2.0%.



On Thursday, all the attention of traders will be focused on Australia itself, which is expected to publish data on new home sales and the labor market situation.



NZD / JPY - the couple took a breather



The yen can not rise above 80.00



The Japanese economy is facing a tense last week of the month, so the yen is experiencing significant pressure. On March 24 close at about 78.17, couple the current Asian session starts with a sharp drop below 77.70.



That can support the Japanese currency




  • index of retail trade in February,


  • labor market indicators,


  • consumer price index CPI.



In addition, over the next three months, the Bank of Japan has default policy on the purchase of assets should give the yen strength.



USD / RUB - growing oil supported the ruble



Tax payments will strengthen the ruble



The Russian currency can get at the beginning of the week supported by taxes and payments in the RF (VAT, excise duties on mineral extraction tax and corporate income tax).



Additional forces ruble can have oil and market growth. In addition, the Central Bank has denied the rumors about the intention to stop further accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, but intends to increase them in the absence of exposure to changes in the annual rate of inflation from the target.



rate reduction risks persist



In the medium term, the Central Bank intends to replenish its foreign exchange reserves, which could negatively affect the rate of the ruble.



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