Financial Times: Soon the panic will pass and the oil price will rise
Bad mood on
market about the price of oil, which
observed last week due to
agreement on Iran's nuclear program
and crises in the Chinese and European
markets will soon pass, analysts say
the newspaper Financial Times. "In the spring of oil
I stabilized, but fell in the summer
fainting, - writes the FT. -
Brent dropped to $ 55 per barrel, although in
the second quarter average price of
$ 65 per barrel. A WTI oil barely held
near the mark of $ 50 per barrel, it is also
about $ 10 lower than the average prices in the
the second quarter. futures price
Brent crude oil also fell. "
Today, oil
futures fell to the lowest level
April due to concerns about excessive
stocks of raw materials and too high rates
oil. So, to 16:26 MSK futures
WTI with delivery in September traded
near the mark of $ 50.67, while Brent - about the level of
$ 56.83 per barrel.
Financial Times tried
find out why the market is set up
pessimistic in relation to the market
oil. "Concerns about the exit
Greece from the eurozone and the crisis in Chinese
the stock market played a role. AT
both cases, the worst is over, but even
if the Greek economy collapsed and
Chinese stocks continued to fall, hitting
on global economic growth, oil demand was
I would be minimal. Greece is not so
It is great, and not so much the stock market
dependent on the Chinese economy. In fact,
fact, although the Chinese economy remains
vulnerable, it should show a moderate
growth during the summer, while
the latest data from the US (with a much
a greater impact on the market) look
much more optimistic, "- analysts write
edition.
On the other hand,
investors are very experienced for delivery
- and all because of the imminent return to
Iranian oil market. Also, do not
has stopped production of the US
shale oil, which in the past year
greatly collapse in oil prices in the world.
According to some estimates, as Iran will increase
supply volume to the maximum,
must pass at least six months. And before
it still needs to wait for the lifting of sanctions,
but this country needs to fulfill
a long list of politically and technically
complex requirements to dismantle
or to preserve the program of
atom. Prior to that time in Asia can
leak only small portions already
available oil reserves, but before
Iran will be able to ramp up production to
scheduled for 500-700 thousand. barrels
day, it will take at least a year, according to
analysts Medley Global Advisors.
unceasing
no matter what the shale
US oil causes many to suffer
Analysts and manufacturers
already reduced expenses to compensate
price reduction. "In fact, the number of
drilling rigs in the United States, apparently,
stabilized after slump
since the beginning of the year. But the latest figures show that production at
one of the largest shale
North Dakota peaked
in December last year and gradually
shrinking and traditional oil production
California also declined, "- he writes
Financial Times.
Meanwhile, the supply of
in many countries outside OPEC also
continue to decline. Brazilian
Petrobras reduced production forecast for
the next five years to 2.8 million barrels per
day with 4.2 million and Colombia reduced the number
drilling rigs.
According to Medley Global
Advisors, is soon to undergo a panic about
oversupply of raw materials in the world, and then the prices
begin to grow. analysts company
calculated that if OPEC will not change
quotas and will continue to consistently produce
30 million barrels per day, and production
outside OPEC will decrease by 5% per year,
by the end of 2018 production will fall about
to 10 million barrels per day, whereas
demand for oil will grow by about
1.2 million barrels per day for the next
several fly - it is 5 million barrels
in a day. "This means that the world should
will find an additional 15 million barrels
a day for the next four
years to justify the current prices for
oil. Even if the United States will resume growth
Shale oil to 1 million barrels
per day for the year, while Iran and Iraq will add on
1.5 million barrels per day, while Russia and Brazil
revised upward its
previous forecasts, it still
will not be enough ", - believe in
Financial Times.
Analysts newspaper make such
conclusion: as soon as the panic will take place in the market,
oil prices rebound. By the way, some analysts say again that oil should grow by at least $ 100 per barrel.
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