Rising oil prices have forced Americans to spend

Falling oil prices could not send Americans to the stores to spend the saved. They went to spend only the resumption of price increases. Published just consumer spending data in April exceeded expectations. Americans increased their spending at once by 0.9%, which is the strongest growth in 11 months. At the same time in March, there was no growth (0.0% m / m). Revenue growth was more evenly: by 0.4% in March and April.

Americans continue to put off about 5.5% of their income to savings. This level is the average was observed since the beginning of this year. This is above the pre-crisis level of 3.0% (2005-2008), which were characterized by overexpenditure by the Americans, which clearly is inflated bubble in the housing market and poured in zakreditovannost Americans.

After the crisis (2008-2013) the ratio of savings to income jumped to 6.3%. This trend should not be taken as an indicator of the growth of savings. Growth means that the Americans do not spend on everyday needs, but it is not completely clear whether the money goes into a jug or to repay loans.

The period from mid-2008 to the end of 2012 was marked by the last: all efforts were aimed at reducing the debt burden. Further, the rate stabilized around 5% and showed a barely noticeable increase in the framework of trends in the reduction in raw material prices. Notice how insignificant was the effect of the oil price collapse in total savings. There was not much point in waiting, that the collapse in energy prices will be a catalyst for the growth of spending.

Quite the contrary, seeing this trend, Americans are in no hurry to spend, imbued deflationary sentiments: why buy today if tomorrow will be cheaper. It was not difficult to do, because everywhere he asserted about the strong dollar and the sunset era of expensive oil.

Prices for gasoline Americans still that the price of buckwheat (food in general) for the Russian - the best leading indicator of inflation. gasoline price reversal to growth quickly led Americans to expect further strengthening of the trend and ran to the store, while prices rose even more. In fact, the Fed should wait for this particular signal, and she got it.

The dollar did not grow strongly on these data, since they are not very different from expectations. But this is a very good sign that we should expect further tightening of the Fed's rhetoric. If I'm right, wait for the development of pressure on bonds. These data form the immunity for US stocks - if the Americans spend a great, they are not afraid rate hike from the Fed.

Aleksandr Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro

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